Underdogs

Everyone loves an underdog.  But is that the Columbus Crew's marketing strategy?  That's quite a change from just a couple months ago, when Crew President & GM Mark McCullers was selling fans and even MLS Commissioner Don Garber on the idea that they had a championship calibre team in 2013.  In a 2/27/13 article in The Columbus Dispatch, McCullers said that there was no doubt in his mind that, "...this team can contend for MLS Cup."  Yet, today at The Greater Columbus Sports Commission's Morning Sports Report, he was quoted as saying, "We're 17 games in, and we're only 5 points out of 2nd place. We're great at being underdogs!"

It's true that the Crew are 5 points out of 2nd place.  It's also true that on a points-per-game (PPG) basis, about halfway through the season they are 13th out of 19 teams with a 1.25 average.  In MLS, 10 of the 19 teams enter the playoffs.  If McCullers' use of the word "contending" is interpreted as the Crew merely making the playoffs, that is certainly still possible.  From that point, it is true that anything can happen.  But based on where the team is halfway through the year, selling this team as championship quality is more and more of a stretch.  When one drills down into the quality of competition that the Crew have played and have yet to play, the situation looks even more bleak.

Points Per Game of Crew Opponents, Grouped by Result
Even though McCullers said 17, The Crew have actually played 16 matches in the 2013 MLS season.  They have won 5 of those matches.  4 of those 5 wins were against the 3 teams with the worst records in the league. (Curiously, the other win was against the team with the best record.)  On average, the teams the Crew beat have a PPG of .94.  The PPG for teams they have tied is 1.51, and for teams that have beaten the Crew the figure is 1.62.  So far this year, the Crew struggle against quality opponents.

Points Per Game of Crew Opponents, Grouped by Schedule
The Crew's struggles against tougher opponents does not bode well, as the rest of their 2013 schedule will stiffen.  In the first 16 matches, the Crew's opponent's overall PPG was 1.27.  In the last 18 matches, the current records of Crew opponents jumps to 1.44.

Points Per Game Needed to Qualify for MLS Playoffs
Over the last 5 years of MLS Cup play, the minimum PPG to qualify averages to 1.42.  The current 5th place Eastern Conference team, Kansas City, is sitting at 1.44 PPG.  Extrapolating through the end of the season, this would mean the expected minimum number of points earned to qualify for the playoffs is about 49.

Extrapolating Crew Results Based on Quality of Opponent
The Crew have earned 20 points so far, and have 18 matches to go.  29 more points over those 18 matches would be a PPG pace of 1.61.  However, as I mentioned earlier the Crew's schedule is going to become more difficult.  If one overlays their current PPG to the games through the rest of 2013 based on quality of opponent, it's not pretty for Crew fans.  Based on beating teams with an average of .94 PPG, tying those around 1.51 and losing to those averaging 1.62, I projected that the Crew's final record would be 8-14-12, landing on 36 points.  If that was the case, the Crew would be out of playoff contention by mid to late September.  Even a middling 6-6-6 would only get the Crew to 44 points, which will not be enough to qualify.  8-5-5 would earn the magic 29 points, but that would mean 5 wins against teams not named Chicago or Toronto. 

Summary

All told, if the Crew are to "contend for the MLS Cup" by eking into the 5th playoff spot in the Eastern Conference, they will have to get significantly better results (1.61 PPG vs current 1.25 PPG pace) against significantly better opponents (1.44 PPG vs previously played opponents with 1.27 PPG).

As a Crew fan, I hope McCullers is right, and that the Crew are great at being underdogs.  They will likely have a lot of practice at that this year.