2017 Crew SC 4caster: Game 32

Enhanced Standings

CLINCHED. "Now what?", you ask? Lots. First, here's the obligatory standings:

SORTED BY PTS

SORTED BY 4CAST

At this point I'm expecting Columbus to host Chicago in the first round knockout. Atlanta hosting RBNY would be interesting, since they're playing each other on 10/15. Plus, there's the Mets-Braves thing.

It's not *likely* that it will end up being Vancouver-Columbus, given all the possibilities... but if it is and it's played in Western Canada b/c of the stoppage time Tchani goal... maaaaan.

2017 Crew SC 4caster: Game 31

scha·den·freu·de: pleasure derived by someone from another person's misfortune.

DC United is out of the playoffs. They are terrible, and always will be. Ok, important stuff out of the way.

Playoff Clinching Scenarios for This Weekend: Chill on That

Crew should win at home vs DC in the first place, but for Montreal or New England to make the playoffs ahead of The Crew it would take the most massive team bed-shitting since one team missed two PKs in the same game... in the playoffs... on my birthday. So don't worry about playoff clinching scenarios.

Enhanced Standings

While DC is out, NYCFC, Atlanta and Chicago are now in the playoffs. But you knew that. This year it's not going to be a race to see who's in the playoffs, but there will be a fight for the 2-3-4 spots. JOSTLIN'!

4casted Final Standings, MLS Cup Hosting

It may only take 46 points to qualify for the playoffs, but to host the KO round Crew SC might need to win their final three games. Even two wins and a tie wouldn't guarantee 4th place. 7 of their possible final 9 points would, however, put them in great shape to host MLS Cup. 

For the wild optimist, a scenario still exists in which Crew SC can finish in 2nd place in the East. For now, 5th place looks most likely.

2017 Crew SC 4caster: Game 30

I'm back, yo. If you were fronting, please cease doing so. While I may have recently taken your sage advice in deleting my (Twitter) account, that doesn't mean I'm wack.

Enhanced Standings

First, my 4casted final standings (red stuff). This week I have Crew SC in 6th. One solitary point separates 3rd from 6th. Montreal has crept back into the picture, but might need 12 points in its final five games.

Next is the one sorted by max points (shown in gray). This takes unplayed games into account, assuming that each team wins all remaining games.

Last is the one sorted by current points (regular standings). This will be somewhat misleading until October 7th, when everyone will have played 32 games.

4casted Final Standings, Elimination/Clinch Dates & MLS Cup Hosting

Look at 3-4-5. Nuts, eh? Decided by goal differential. This also means that per usual, looks like 50 points are needed to make the playoffs. 53 will get you home field advantage in the knockout round. But we probably won't know anything for sure until 10/15.

Finally, MLS Cup hosting watch is officially on. 

Possible New Songs for Crew Games

I love coming up with new Crew SC songs, but it’s super hard to figure out ones that truly work. IMO they need to be:

• dog-simple, 
• fun, 
• catchy, 
• even more simple, 
• widely recognizable, 
• a cappella-friendly (very important), and 
• with as few lyrics as possible. 

Bonus round awesomeness would be to include all of Mapfre in the singalong and/or to have a local connection with a tune.

For instance, when it first came out "7 Nation Army" was great b/c it’s only 7 notes and zero lyrics. It has since been co-opted by every "Jock Jams" DJ on the planet. That said, here are some ideas.

Can’t Get Crew Outta My Head

TUNE: Can't Get You Outta My Head - Kylie Minogue

I just can’t get Crew outta my head

No your goals are all I think about

I just can’t get Crew outta my head

No your goals are all I think about

La la, la la la la, la la (x4)

The tune is super catchy, and I like the idea of Nordecke singing the la la las. Lyrics are easy; folks are already used to singing "...just can't get" when they sing "I Just Can't Get Enough". Side note: I'd watch Kylie Minogue do my taxes.

Kamara, Kamara

TUNE: Tomorrow –Annie OST (1982)

Kamara, Kamara,

We love ya, Kamara,

He'll score us a goal today (repeat a bunch)

Like Kei, this has legs. We need an AWESOME song for Kamara, who is a legit MVP candidate and generally is fabulous.

UPDATE: Fixed the last line, thanks to Jerry Legend.

I Hate Myself for Loving Crew

TUNE: I Hate Myself For Loving You - Joan Jett

I hate myself for loving Crew

Can’t break free from the things that they do

I wanna walk but I run back to you

That's why I hate myself for loving Crew

I thought of this when Alex Stanek went to The Who show and saw Joan Jett, who is undeniably a bad ass. In hockey, they play certain songs when the home team is scored on. Kinda weird. It makes me not like the song most of the time, b/c I’m associating it with something poopy. On the other hand, if we sang this song after the Crew were scored on, it would be 1) original, 2) a re-commitment of our undying love, 3) a way to quickly get our heads back in the game.

Praise Crew

TUNE: Praise You – Fatboy Slim

We’ve come a long long way together

Through the hard times and the good

I have to celebrate Crew baby

I have to praise Crew like I should (repeat)

I love the message on this one. Thinking that along with some soul claps, this could take flight.

Tchani B. Goode

TUNE: Johnny B. Goode - Chuck Berry

Go Go. 
Go Tchani go, go.
Go Tchani go, go.
Go Tchani go, go.
Go Tchani go, go. Tchani B. Goode. (repeat)

Very simple, and 'Tchani' is a dead ringer for 'Johnny'. Dishonorable mention: "Who's Tchani?", a take off the El DeBarge song.

Crew Ya Think I'm Sexy?

TUNE: Da Ya Think I'm Sexy? - Rod Stewart

IF u like Mawbati AND u think he’s sexy COME on Mapfre let me KNOW. 

IF u really need it JUST reach out & shoot it COME on Cedrick score a GOAL. 

Na na na na na... Nana nana nana na, nana nana nana na

Hopefully Cedrick is great and causes us to sing this song often.

Columbus Crew Playoff 4cast - Moved Down the Street

Hi.  You can now check out my first playoff 4cast entry on Massive Report.

Columbus Crew 2013 Playoff 4caster

*Last Updated 7/5/13 2:41PM Columbus Standard Time*

On this page, I will keep a running view of The Crew's playoff chances, who to root for in the coming week, when Toronto and DC will be eliminated from the playoffs and more.  

Look for big changes coming Sunday, July 7th... as I'll be moving the Crew Playoff 4caster to Massive Report!  I'm honored to be writing for MR, and look forward to connecting with a larger swath of Crew Nation.

Playoffs
After Montreal, MLS' Eastern Conference is currently very flat.  Last year, 52 points was only good enough for 6th place.  At 2013 trends, 52 would win the East!  This will help the Crew's playoff chances by pushing down the number of points needed for 5th place- currently projected at 46.

Here's a summary:

Projected Pts To Win Supporters Shield	61
Projected Pts To Win East	52
Projected Pts To Make Playoffs - East	46
Current Crew Points	20
Current Crew PPG	1.11
Crew Projected Points at Current PPG	38
Projected Remaining Points Crew Need To Earn To Make Playoffs	26
Typical Record Needed for 26 Pts in 16 games	7-4-5
Projected PPG Needed for remaining 16 games	1.63

After the Galaxy loss Thursday, the Crew return home to face Portland on Sunday looking for their first points in 4 games. With only 2 more games in July, even a win against the Timbers won't keep The Crew from looking up the standings most of the month.

Crew Opponents' PPG
Being the midway point in the season, the PPG for The Crew's past opponents (1.3) is starting to become less and less relevant.  Lots of opponents means the overall number pushes closer to the MLS average of about 1.4 PPG.  For this reason, I'm not going to include this figure in analysis any longer.

The Crew's future opponent PPG, on the other hand (1.4), is more and more important.  Teams are starting to separate themselves, and The Crew will have a better gauge of what they're up against by checking out the PPG of their upcoming foes.

The PPG of opponents that the Crew beat, lost to or tied is trickier to delve in to.  First, since there's 3 categories, the smaller data sets will give you numbers that could move around a lot.  Next, as the season moves along the schedule balances more and more; this provides a more accurate view of a teams' overall quality.

The real story here for Crew fans is that while the teams that beat and tie the Crew are about average, the quality of the opponents they can actually beat is so far... well... lacking.

Opponents' PPG - Games in the Past	1.3
Opponents' PPG - Games Yet To Play	1.4
Opponents' PPG - Crew Victories	0.9
Opponents' PPG - Crew Defeats	1.4
Opponents' PPG - Crew Ties	1.5

Who Do I Root For This Week?
One of the harshest indignities of chasing after the 5th and final playoff spot is having to root for other teams to help out your situation.  While technically The Crew control their own density... I mean... destiny, something tells me Crew fans better start cheering now.  To make matters worse, 2 of the The Crew's 3 fiercest rivals are abysmal this year.  While this provides fun popcorn time (see Schadenfreude Zentral, the section below), that also means that the educated Crew fan will often be rooting for their rivals as they compete against other Eastern Conference foes.  Barf.  This week, here's your guide:

Date	Match	Root For
7/6	San Jose @ New England	San Jose
7/6	Philly @ Houston	Philly
7/7	SKC @ Chicago	Sporting KC
7/7	Chivas @ Montreal	Chivas

Schadenfreude Zentral
If there might be a saving grace to the 2013 season, it would be that both DC United and Toronto are awful.  Regardless of how Crew Cranky you might be, this section will bring a bit of spring back to the step of any Crew fan.

Toronto is once again going to miss the MLS Playoffs, as is tradition.  Speaking of TRADITION, DC United is the worst team in the league.

Fun Fact: Toronto FC has never once fired their coach in July or August.
Fun Fact, Part 2: After 12 games, Ryan Nelsen has the worst winning percentage in TFC history.

Let's get to the numbers, shall we?

DC United's Projected 2013 Points	17
Toronto FC's Projected 2013 Points	26
Projected Date DC United Eliminated From Playoffs	8/24 vs Toronto
Projected Date Toronto FC Eliminated From Playoffs	9/14 @NYRB
Date Toronto FC Fires Coach	TBD