Columbus Crew 2013 Playoff 4caster

*Last Updated 7/5/13 2:41PM Columbus Standard Time*

On this page, I will keep a running view of The Crew's playoff chances, who to root for in the coming week, when Toronto and DC will be eliminated from the playoffs and more.  

Look for big changes coming Sunday, July 7th... as I'll be moving the Crew Playoff 4caster to Massive Report!  I'm honored to be writing for MR, and look forward to connecting with a larger swath of Crew Nation.

Playoffs
After Montreal, MLS' Eastern Conference is currently very flat.  Last year, 52 points was only good enough for 6th place.  At 2013 trends, 52 would win the East!  This will help the Crew's playoff chances by pushing down the number of points needed for 5th place- currently projected at 46.

Here's a summary:

Projected Pts To Win Supporters Shield	61
Projected Pts To Win East	52
Projected Pts To Make Playoffs - East	46
Current Crew Points	20
Current Crew PPG	1.11
Crew Projected Points at Current PPG	38
Projected Remaining Points Crew Need To Earn To Make Playoffs	26
Typical Record Needed for 26 Pts in 16 games	7-4-5
Projected PPG Needed for remaining 16 games	1.63

After the Galaxy loss Thursday, the Crew return home to face Portland on Sunday looking for their first points in 4 games. With only 2 more games in July, even a win against the Timbers won't keep The Crew from looking up the standings most of the month.

Crew Opponents' PPG
Being the midway point in the season, the PPG for The Crew's past opponents (1.3) is starting to become less and less relevant.  Lots of opponents means the overall number pushes closer to the MLS average of about 1.4 PPG.  For this reason, I'm not going to include this figure in analysis any longer.

The Crew's future opponent PPG, on the other hand (1.4), is more and more important.  Teams are starting to separate themselves, and The Crew will have a better gauge of what they're up against by checking out the PPG of their upcoming foes.

The PPG of opponents that the Crew beat, lost to or tied is trickier to delve in to.  First, since there's 3 categories, the smaller data sets will give you numbers that could move around a lot.  Next, as the season moves along the schedule balances more and more; this provides a more accurate view of a teams' overall quality.

The real story here for Crew fans is that while the teams that beat and tie the Crew are about average, the quality of the opponents they can actually beat is so far... well... lacking.

Opponents' PPG - Games in the Past	1.3
Opponents' PPG - Games Yet To Play	1.4
Opponents' PPG - Crew Victories	0.9
Opponents' PPG - Crew Defeats	1.4
Opponents' PPG - Crew Ties	1.5

Who Do I Root For This Week?
One of the harshest indignities of chasing after the 5th and final playoff spot is having to root for other teams to help out your situation.  While technically The Crew control their own density... I mean... destiny, something tells me Crew fans better start cheering now.  To make matters worse, 2 of the The Crew's 3 fiercest rivals are abysmal this year.  While this provides fun popcorn time (see Schadenfreude Zentral, the section below), that also means that the educated Crew fan will often be rooting for their rivals as they compete against other Eastern Conference foes.  Barf.  This week, here's your guide:

Date	Match	Root For
7/6	San Jose @ New England	San Jose
7/6	Philly @ Houston	Philly
7/7	SKC @ Chicago	Sporting KC
7/7	Chivas @ Montreal	Chivas

Schadenfreude Zentral
If there might be a saving grace to the 2013 season, it would be that both DC United and Toronto are awful.  Regardless of how Crew Cranky you might be, this section will bring a bit of spring back to the step of any Crew fan.

Toronto is once again going to miss the MLS Playoffs, as is tradition.  Speaking of TRADITION, DC United is the worst team in the league.

Fun Fact: Toronto FC has never once fired their coach in July or August.
Fun Fact, Part 2: After 12 games, Ryan Nelsen has the worst winning percentage in TFC history.

Let's get to the numbers, shall we?

DC United's Projected 2013 Points	17
Toronto FC's Projected 2013 Points	26
Projected Date DC United Eliminated From Playoffs	8/24 vs Toronto
Projected Date Toronto FC Eliminated From Playoffs	9/14 @NYRB
Date Toronto FC Fires Coach	TBD

Underdogs

Everyone loves an underdog.  But is that the Columbus Crew's marketing strategy?  That's quite a change from just a couple months ago, when Crew President & GM Mark McCullers was selling fans and even MLS Commissioner Don Garber on the idea that they had a championship calibre team in 2013.  In a 2/27/13 article in The Columbus Dispatch, McCullers said that there was no doubt in his mind that, "...this team can contend for MLS Cup."  Yet, today at The Greater Columbus Sports Commission's Morning Sports Report, he was quoted as saying, "We're 17 games in, and we're only 5 points out of 2nd place. We're great at being underdogs!"

It's true that the Crew are 5 points out of 2nd place.  It's also true that on a points-per-game (PPG) basis, about halfway through the season they are 13th out of 19 teams with a 1.25 average.  In MLS, 10 of the 19 teams enter the playoffs.  If McCullers' use of the word "contending" is interpreted as the Crew merely making the playoffs, that is certainly still possible.  From that point, it is true that anything can happen.  But based on where the team is halfway through the year, selling this team as championship quality is more and more of a stretch.  When one drills down into the quality of competition that the Crew have played and have yet to play, the situation looks even more bleak.

Points Per Game of Crew Opponents, Grouped by Result
Even though McCullers said 17, The Crew have actually played 16 matches in the 2013 MLS season.  They have won 5 of those matches.  4 of those 5 wins were against the 3 teams with the worst records in the league. (Curiously, the other win was against the team with the best record.)  On average, the teams the Crew beat have a PPG of .94.  The PPG for teams they have tied is 1.51, and for teams that have beaten the Crew the figure is 1.62.  So far this year, the Crew struggle against quality opponents.

Points Per Game of Crew Opponents, Grouped by Schedule
The Crew's struggles against tougher opponents does not bode well, as the rest of their 2013 schedule will stiffen.  In the first 16 matches, the Crew's opponent's overall PPG was 1.27.  In the last 18 matches, the current records of Crew opponents jumps to 1.44.

Points Per Game Needed to Qualify for MLS Playoffs
Over the last 5 years of MLS Cup play, the minimum PPG to qualify averages to 1.42.  The current 5th place Eastern Conference team, Kansas City, is sitting at 1.44 PPG.  Extrapolating through the end of the season, this would mean the expected minimum number of points earned to qualify for the playoffs is about 49.

Extrapolating Crew Results Based on Quality of Opponent
The Crew have earned 20 points so far, and have 18 matches to go.  29 more points over those 18 matches would be a PPG pace of 1.61.  However, as I mentioned earlier the Crew's schedule is going to become more difficult.  If one overlays their current PPG to the games through the rest of 2013 based on quality of opponent, it's not pretty for Crew fans.  Based on beating teams with an average of .94 PPG, tying those around 1.51 and losing to those averaging 1.62, I projected that the Crew's final record would be 8-14-12, landing on 36 points.  If that was the case, the Crew would be out of playoff contention by mid to late September.  Even a middling 6-6-6 would only get the Crew to 44 points, which will not be enough to qualify.  8-5-5 would earn the magic 29 points, but that would mean 5 wins against teams not named Chicago or Toronto. 

Summary

All told, if the Crew are to "contend for the MLS Cup" by eking into the 5th playoff spot in the Eastern Conference, they will have to get significantly better results (1.61 PPG vs current 1.25 PPG pace) against significantly better opponents (1.44 PPG vs previously played opponents with 1.27 PPG).

As a Crew fan, I hope McCullers is right, and that the Crew are great at being underdogs.  They will likely have a lot of practice at that this year.